Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means -0.43114605 -0.50897052 -0.52835353 -0.62145213
ratio_of_sd 0.96447515 0.99712344 0.94682345 0.92630970
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.75009476 0.95611705 0.81843097 0.71862548
maximum_error 0.44050517 0.12629337 0.25639075 0.26871576
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.28731817 0.13731794 0.16545012 0.28061410
qqplot_mae 1.25548184 1.48210391 1.54108011 1.80995124
acf_mae 0.12760562 0.03449847 0.08018873 0.11179987
extremogram_mae 0.07796352 0.04122180 0.01859019 0.04018343

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means -0.49785386 -0.56695382 -0.59448411 -0.67654563
ratio_of_sd 0.92890609 0.96745117 0.91742832 0.89484688
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.74115484 0.95858008 0.80891298 0.70808837
maximum_error 0.42483262 0.12690201 0.24726111 0.27267194
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.20937575 0.04106780 0.11827835 0.22419281
qqplot_mae 1.44973334 1.65100692 1.73517901 1.97043684
acf_mae 0.11897410 0.01946636 0.07168813 0.10456985
extremogram_mae 0.04247802 0.01723197 0.01651882 0.02062106

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means -0.37024334 -0.44434059 -0.47226594 -0.55906243
ratio_of_sd 0.95816213 0.99450026 0.94658631 0.92258582
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.74370471 0.95753528 0.81107982 0.70998728
maximum_error 0.41479002 0.11138162 0.24923920 0.26049909
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.16801422 0.05333888 0.08945995 0.19010543
qqplot_mae 1.08106140 1.29401012 1.37888810 1.62816353
acf_mae 0.12608279 0.03148737 0.08155781 0.11263216
extremogram_mae 0.06043956 0.01637785 0.01150852 0.03120597

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means -0.18594659 -0.26608514 -0.28391646 -0.39153836
ratio_of_sd 0.97353706 1.01927751 0.96466021 0.93326247
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.66834186 0.94649038 0.71845072 0.61890776
maximum_error 0.45374315 0.16342057 0.25928180 0.33566646
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.36961209 0.17591054 0.28469805 0.37337823
qqplot_mae 0.56181918 0.77498092 0.83819323 1.14102971
acf_mae 0.17395110 0.06544485 0.13874294 0.16728225
extremogram_mae 0.07123485 0.02094780 0.03153177 0.05223302

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means -0.1519222 -0.31860994 -0.33721300 -0.41235407
ratio_of_sd 1.1406023 1.15316880 1.09382564 1.08973680
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.8312279 0.96231936 0.92209879 0.81683602
maximum_error 0.4406573 0.11168594 0.21622033 0.29945222
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.4211201 0.30350545 0.29393096 0.34896151
qqplot_mae 0.7679863 1.03054598 0.98323573 1.20322042
acf_mae 0.1440510 0.08648742 0.09738817 0.12201995
extremogram_mae 0.1077856 0.10028353 0.02042829 0.01948612

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.02865511 -0.13352624 -0.16982247 -0.2412985
ratio_of_sd 1.08565652 1.10916286 1.06098850 1.0421493
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.78868199 0.96062706 0.88377656 0.7693775
maximum_error 0.42833232 0.11381619 0.22443701 0.3247109
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.43348855 0.28712542 0.29854015 0.4011744
qqplot_mae 0.54584237 0.63072007 0.54080968 0.7027897
acf_mae 0.13915963 0.06837177 0.09634937 0.1216007
extremogram_mae 0.07236254 0.03440287 0.02490896 0.0366080

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric cnn naive xgboost lstm
diff_of_means 0.0001641684 -0.16522001 -0.19762189 -0.26648882
ratio_of_sd 1.1407329854 1.15467227 1.09948301 1.09051333
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.8150632481 0.96281750 0.90066287 0.79894617
maximum_error 0.4398965307 0.10803408 0.21500304 0.31634206
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.4125174418 0.27568183 0.29700414 0.37340138
qqplot_mae 0.7645335181 0.87825165 0.72370386 0.77847639
acf_mae 0.1461875657 0.08540537 0.10554491 0.12690401
extremogram_mae 0.0763771485 0.05334249 0.01989997 0.02154656

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97